Horse Racing Betting Strategy Analysed
Horse racing betting strategy is all about betting safely and within the predictable parameters of the mathematics of book making. This will then always be a better bet. Horse racing, however, is a game of chance, and racing these thoroughbred animals needs to be understood as a live event, with human and animal interaction, and so much more than merely pure applications of probability calculus. Horse races are not just isolated events whose numerical probability is well established through mathematical methods.
Human action influences the progression, the development and ultimately the outcome of the races. The unpredictable horse and human element is an incalculable variable in horse racing betting strategy, and punters should appreciate that no matter how mathematically orientated their strategy is, the moment live interactions occur there is the possibility that the unexpected could happen.
Strategy Involves Knowing What the Mathematics Mean
To obtain favourable results from their horse racing betting strategy, punters still need to take the mathematics of book making into account. In order to arrive at any useful conclusion regarding horse racing betting strategy, all possible information, including statistics, is required to build the strategies. Any estimated future gain or loss is called the expected value and is the sum of the probability of each possible outcome of the strategy is multiplied by its payoff value. The odds on the horses represent the average amount one expects to win per bet if bets with identical odds are repeated many times.
The Book Makers’ Angle
Bookmakers aim to be able to accept wagers on the outcome of a horse race, or other event, in the ideal proportions so that he will show a profit irrespective of the outcome of the event. Using what is known as philosophical gambling strategy, he will endeavour to achieve this profitability by adjusting what he determines as the true odds of the various outcomes of the event or sporting occurrence in a downward fashion. These bookmakers’ odds are less than the true odds, and the difference is his ‘built-in’ profit margin. Understanding this is key to any horse racing betting strategy.
The Punters’ Advantage
Using horse racing betting strategy to good effect in a highly competitive field, punters must be aware that bookmakers have to deal with different accepted odds presentation. The first of these are where the odds on events are fixed, such as in the case of a football match, but on many horse races, and when betting on the totes, they may be fluctuating. Fluctuating odds, or Parimutuel betting takes into account the size of the wagers being placed by punters in the lead-up to the race, and is key to any horse racing betting strategy being effective.
This odds calculations, or mathematics of book making, provide the book makers with the equivalent of the casino ‘house edge’. A predictable long-term advantage to the book maker, or ‘house’, while offering the player the possibility of a large short-term pay out is the basics of horse racing betting strategy. This is the basic attraction that keeps the benefits of horse racing access alive, namely a thrilling adventure, allowing for breath taking wagering on their favourite horses and jockeys to be conducted anywhere and anytime. Being able to speculate on all possible horse races online, whilst keeping the bookmaker in business is made possible thanks to the very mathematics of each parties’ strategy. They are the foundation of online betting opportunities, but will always retain a remarkably noticeable human factor.